Tropical Storm Francine is projected to strengthen into a hurricane as it nears the western Gulf of Mexico, with a likely landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. The storm is expected to bring storm surge, heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and tornadoes to Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast and South.
Current Status
As of 7 a.m. CDT, Francine is located about 400 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, and is moving slowly north-northwest. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, classifying it as a strong tropical storm. Although most of the rain is still offshore, some bands have reached South Texas and the northern Gulf Coast.
Warnings in Effect:
- A hurricane warning is in place along the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle.
- A storm surge warning is active from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana.
- Tropical storm watches and warnings cover much of the western and northern Gulf Coast, from northeastern Mexico to the Alabama-Mississippi border. New Orleans is under a tropical storm warning, anticipating sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph within the next 36 hours.
Forecast Track and Intensity:
Francine is expected to continue intensifying and make landfall as a hurricane along the Louisiana coast later on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center projects Francine to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. The warm Gulf waters are conducive to this strengthening, although dry air has limited its growth. After landfall, Francine will spread rainfall across the South, reaching as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
Potential Impacts:
- Flooding Rainfall:
Heavy rain bands will affect areas from South Texas to Louisiana, Mississippi, and southern Alabama on Tuesday and may continue through Wednesday night. Rainfall totals could reach 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Flood watches are in effect for cities such as New Orleans, Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, and Biloxi. Other parts of the South could also experience localized flooding. - Storm Surge:
Storm surge will inundate low-lying areas along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts starting Tuesday night. Peak surge could reach 5 to 10 feet in southern Louisiana. The surge is expected to coincide with high tide around landfall on Wednesday, with possible coastal flooding extending into Thursday morning. - Wind:
Hurricane conditions may reach areas under hurricane warnings by Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds could start impacting southern Louisiana by Tuesday night, with the potential for downed trees and power outages. Tropical storm force winds may also affect parts of South Texas, southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and the upper Texas coast. - Tornadoes:
Landfalling tropical cyclones can produce tornadoes, and Francine could spawn isolated tornadoes in southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle by Wednesday or Wednesday night. The tornado threat may extend into eastern Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle on Thursday.
Historical Context:
Francine is the first Atlantic storm to make headlines since Ernesto moved into the North Atlantic Ocean on August 20. It has been 30 years since the Atlantic Basin went through the first full week of September without active tropical cyclones. The last time the Atlantic Basin had no storms forming from August 13 through September 8 was in 1968.