The stock market is almost always late to the threat of a recession, but it’s getting harder to miss the Federal Reserve’s warnings. Not only could there be a recession, but the Fed has no intention of stepping in to save investors this time.

The problem is something I’ve been wondering about all year: Investors still don’t see much of a threat to earnings, even though recessions almost always hit earnings hard. Instead, much of the fall in stock prices has been due to rising rates that drag down valuations. Earnings were slightly lower this year, at least if you exclude energy companies that are boosting oil revenues, but Wall Street continues to forecast decent earnings growth next year.

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