One of the surest signs that the job market has started to falter is a noticeable increase in layoffs. There is no sign of this in the US yet

By contrast, very few Americans are losing their jobs. The Labor Department said on Thursday that only 214,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed in the week ended Saturday, compared with 226,000 the week before. That’s about as low as they’ve averaged this year. In the past, claims have typically jumped above 400,000 at the start of a recession. Last week was the period on which the Labor Department bases its monthly employment numbers, so it looks like the October jobs report will show continued strength.

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