High-End Tornado Watch Issued for SW Michigan: Gusts Up to 90 MPH Possible
A tornado watch has been issued across northern Illinois, southwest Lower Michigan, and northwest Indiana. Intense severe weather is ongoing in Iowa and Illinois as of 8:00 p.m. and is heading eastward.
Areas Affected
In Michigan, the counties under the tornado watch are:
- Allegan
- Barry
- Berrien
- Cass
- Kalamazoo
- Van Buren
This watch is in effect until 2 a.m.
Current Situation
Several tornado warnings are active with severe thunderstorms just west of Michigan in northern Illinois. Our most reliable model, which has accurately forecasted tornadic supercell thunderstorms several times this summer, predicts a supercell storm will move into southwest Lower Michigan near midnight.
Severe Weather Forecast
The severe situation is more likely to produce significant straight-line winds, but a few tornadoes are also possible. The primary threat will be widespread, significant wind gusts.
The National Weather Service has warned that numerous gusts between 70 mph and 90 mph are possible in the tornado watch area.
Timing
The storms are expected to enter southwest Michigan from Lake Michigan around 11 p.m., give or take an hour. There will still be enough instability to support significant severe thunderstorms. The energy for damaging storms should decrease between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Tuesday, leading to a weakening of the storms.
The National Weather Service stated in the tornado watch that, “Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more bow echoes from Iowa into northern Illinois this evening, with the potential to produce swaths of significant severe gusts up to 75-90 mph and several tornadoes with embedded circulations. The storms will spread into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan later tonight.”
Expected Impact
Severe thunderstorms are expected to enter Michigan’s part of the tornado watch area between 10 p.m. and midnight, affecting Benton Harbor, Niles, Three Rivers, Kalamazoo, and the rest of the southwest corner of Michigan. Between midnight and 2 a.m., the storms should move along the I-94 corridor through Jackson, Ann Arbor, and the Detroit area, weakening but still potentially severe.
Safety Advice
If severe storms hit your area, move to the basement or the interior-most part of your house. Campers should not stay in their campers during these storms. Stay alert and take necessary precautions to ensure your safety.